Population and Household Projections

It should be noted that these population projections are based on population estimates and trends before the 2021 Census. 

Population Projections

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population based on assumptions on births, deaths and migration derived from past trends.

The Welsh Government published the latest trend-based population projections for Wales' 22 local authority areas in August 2020.  These projections are 2018-based and cover the 25-year period to 2043.  The projections are based mainly on five years of births, deaths and migration data (up to mid-2018), and incorporate assumptions on fertility and mortality from the national population projections.  

A  briefing note (PDF) [1MB] is available which provides an overview of the latest Welsh Government population projections and the key results for Swansea.  The note also summarises the methodology, projected population change in and within Wales, trends by key age group, comparisons with the previous projections, and the initial variant projections published.

The projections only indicate what may happen should population trends (up to 2018) continue.  They make no allowance for effects of local or national government policies, or potential change caused by more recent demographic, social and economic factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic.  However, projections are important for policy development, planning, and the provision of public services, including estimating future need at a local level.

A set of new 'subnational' projections will be undertaken incorporating the latest Census data (2021) and associated population estimates in due course. 

In the meantime, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published 2021-based interim national population projections for the UK and constituent countries including Wales.  Further information is available via the ONS website link below.

Household Projections

In August 2020, Welsh Government also published 2018-based household projections for local authority areas in Wales.  The household projections are derived from the 2018-based population projections, and assumptions about future changes in household composition and size.  A briefing note (PDF) [1MB] on the latest household projections is also available on this page. 

Again, it should be noted that these (2018-based) household projections are based on estimates and trends before the 2021 Census, and will be updated following the production of revised population projections.

If you have any enquiries regarding the projections, or require further demographic statistics for Swansea, please contact us.