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Population and Household Projections

Population and Household Projections for Swansea (Welsh Government, 2018-based).

Population Projections

Population projections provide estimates of the size of the future population based on assumptions on births, deaths and migration derived from past trends.

The Welsh Government published the latest trend-based population projections for Wales' 22 local authority areas in August 2020*.  These projections are 2018-based and cover the 25-year period to 2043.  The projections are based mainly on five years of births, deaths and migration data (up to mid-2018), and incorporate assumptions on fertility and mortality from the latest national population projections.

briefing note [1MB]  is available which provides an overview of the latest Welsh Government population projections and the key results for Swansea.  The note also summarises the methodology, projected population change in and within Wales, trends by key age group, comparisons with the previous projections, and the initial variant projections published.

The projections only indicate what may happen should recent population trends continue.  They make no allowance for effects of local or national government policies, or potential change caused by demographic, social and economic factors, including BREXIT and the COVID-19 pandemic.  However, projections are important for policy development, planning, and the provision of public services, including estimating future need at a local level.

Household Projections

In August 2020, Welsh Government also published 2018-based household projections for local authority areas in Wales.  The household projections are derived from the 2018-based population projections, and assumptions about future changes in household composition and size.  A briefing note on the latest household projections is also available on this page.

*NOTE: The 2018-based projections were originally published in February 2020, but later withdrawn following identification of a significant error related to cross-border flows between England and Wales, which affected both the national and local projections.  The information included in the briefing note on this page reflects the revised projections.

Further information on these population and household projections is also available via the Welsh Government's 'Statistics and research' pages.  If you have any enquiries regarding this information, or require further demographic statistics for Swansea, please contact us.